Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 10.870205 13.394008 16.235160 19.649826 23.620652 28.070624 33.411682
2025-04-20 7.330196 10.545418 14.607498 20.022550 26.949149 35.404639 46.387222
2025-04-27 5.508588 8.966842 13.744449 20.621256 30.033645 42.216219 58.889699
2025-05-04 4.382039 7.943586 13.252355 21.390159 33.144203 49.062331 71.727380
2025-05-11 3.511400 7.044139 12.691548 21.848820 35.708757 55.215665 83.923081
2025-05-18 2.743799 6.097835 11.843493 21.676688 37.226921 59.901381 94.282233
2025-05-25 2.074115 5.134003 10.762073 20.927755 37.707121 63.018060 102.494481
2025-06-01 1.633514 4.480329 10.074552 20.684563 38.874159 67.134684 112.292183
2025-06-08 1.218486 3.748334 9.091779 19.765422 38.800111 69.280782 119.192572
2025-06-15 1.040587 3.502170 8.996770 20.405720 41.348473 75.624942 132.742988
2025-06-22 0.791290 2.990913 8.255078 19.719591 41.513665 78.126053 140.412163
2025-06-29 0.687290 2.835680 8.248245 20.448365 44.223379 84.899967 155.101112
2025-07-06 0.454930 2.217901 7.102082 18.814619 42.662144 84.782489 159.298106
2025-07-13 0.366287 2.020911 6.927741 19.212901 44.985037 91.488525 175.123451
2025-07-20 0.301451 1.874203 6.845692 19.794548 47.701403 99.026690 192.687461
2025-07-27 0.253171 1.765277 6.838567 20.538772 50.791014 107.384757 211.999974
2025-08-03 0.205603 1.627558 6.714048 20.982712 53.295262 114.810547 230.030955
2025-08-10 0.154913 1.432524 6.362817 20.816103 54.501566 119.908925 244.238965
2025-08-17 0.107430 1.203171 5.828101 20.091292 54.432622 122.601002 254.314535
2025-08-24 0.078450 1.051724 5.503767 19.855969 55.390771 127.262380 268.056514
2025-08-31 0.050880 0.863966 4.976195 18.966731 54.781596 128.839923 276.276187
2025-09-07 0.041668 0.817818 4.980659 19.586170 57.684326 137.441448 297.646891
2025-09-14 0.027015 0.684117 4.572798 18.922398 57.506473 139.891195 307.742009